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Felix Cold Brew: Oil's long shadow

Page 1: Oil's long shadow
Felix Cold Brew Savers buy what foreigners sell One giant queue, an emptying street Rates are going up, not down The seesaw in your savings WEEK OF 19–23 OCTOBER 2026 Oil’s long shadow
Page 2: Four sessions, four falls
The week in one minute Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 Four sessions, four falls Closes on Fri 23 Oct unless shown; Tuesday was a Dussehra holiday. Sources under each figure. KEY TAKEAWAY Indian shares fell on every trading day: the Nifty 50 lost 2.36% and the Smallcap 250 7.10%, as dear oil and rising rates weighed. The Nifty 50, day by day · NSE Indices Mon 19 −1.11% 22,888.95 Tue 20 Dussehra: markets shut Wed 21 −0.34% 22,811.35 Thu 22 −0.54% 22,687.65 Fri 23 −0.39% 22,600.00 Nifty 50, the week −2.36% to 22,600.00 on 23 Oct, from 23,146.15 on 16 Oct Nifty Midcap 150 20,592.75 −5.26% in the week −7.56% in 2026 23 Oct · NSE Indices Nifty Smallcap 250 16,385.15 −7.10% in the week Now 1.80% down in 2026 23 Oct · NSE Indices Nifty Bank 54,287.35 −2.79% in the week −8.89% in 2026 23 Oct · NSE Indices Nifty IT 31,995.50 +0.22% in the week The only sector index up, of 19 23 Oct · NSE Indices India VIX 16.86 +19.91% in the week 2026 high: 27.89 on 30 Mar 23 Oct · NSE Indices Foreign investors −₹2,60,302 crore +₹4,044 crore, 19–23 Oct J F M A M J J A S Net equity sold, Jan–Sep 30 Sep · NSDL 10-yr G-sec price index 837.24 −0.70% in the week −6.14% in 2026; prices fall as yields rise 23 Oct · NSE Indices Brent crude, spot $115.22 a barrel +88% since 31 Dec 2025 $61.35 $115.22 31 Dec 20 Oct Latest official reading 20 Oct · US EIA Rupee per dollar 94.96 Rupee −5.4% in 2026 89.84 94.96 31 Dec 16 Oct Fed H.10 noon rate 16 Oct · Federal Reserve Gold, India, 10 g ₹1,41,630 −2.96% from 19 Oct IBJA 999; rates exclude GST 23 Oct · IBJA US 10-yr Treasury 5.00% −9 basis points +82 basis points in 2026 23 Oct · US Treasury SIP inflows, September ₹32,490 crore a record +10.7% on a year earlier 30 Sep · AMFI The 2-minute skim: where to read more 1 Attacks on Saudi oil kept Brent near $115. → p3 2 Small caps fell three times as hard as the Nifty. → p4 3 The RBI’s minutes rule out rate cuts for now. → p7 4 Of 19 sector indices, only IT rose. → p4 5 SIPs hit a record ₹32,490 crore in September. → p9 6 Core-sector output still grew 7.9% in September. → p7 2
Page 3: Oil's long shadow
Cover story Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 Oil’s long shadow Crude near $115 a barrel is working its way into India’s prices, its interest rates and its share prices. KEY TAKEAWAY Dear oil is not a one-week shock: it has travelled through the rupee and prices to the RBI, and on into what bonds and shares are worth. 1 Brent crude $115.22 a barrel $61.35 31 Dec 2025 $135.51 2 Oct $115.22 20 Oct Spot price on 20 Oct: nearly 90% dearer than at New Year, after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Brent spot: US EIA via FRED · attacks: Kotak Neo, HDFC Sky (around 22 Oct) 2 The rupee Oil is paid for in dollars 5.4% weaker against the dollar this year, to 16 Oct; ₹94.94 per $ on 23 Oct 89.84 94.96 31 Dec 2025 16 Oct ₹ per US$, Fed H.10 Fed H.10 via FRED · HDFC Sky (23 Oct) 3 Prices Dearer fuel feeds inflation 5.54% CPI, Sept provisional; wholesale fuel and power +25.85% on a year CPI 4.83% Aug 5.54% Sep WPI 9.92% Aug 11.39% Sep MoSPI (12 Oct) · DPIIT (14 Oct) 4 The RBI Inflation leaves little room 5.50% repo rate raised 25 bp on 7 Oct. The minutes, out on 21 Oct, quote Governor Malhotra: ‘rate cuts are off the table in the near term.’ RBI, MPC minutes, 21 Oct 5 Bonds and your savings 7.44% 10-yr G-sec yield touched on 22 Oct, the highest since Nov 2022 837.24 Bond price index, 26 weeks to 23 Oct: −6.14% in 2026, ten weekly falls in a row EMIs Repo-linked loans can reset higher after a hike. New FDs May pay more; yours keeps its rate. Debt funds NAVs dip as yields rise; long bonds swing most. Yield: Kotak Neo, single source · index: NSE Indices 6 Shares −2.36% Nifty 50 week to 23 Oct, at 22,600.00; the Smallcap 250 fell 7.10% 22.75 19.05 31 Dec 2025 23 Oct Nifty 50 price-to-earnings ratio NSE Indices, 23 Oct Dearer money yields rise, so bond prices fall and it weighs on shares Bottom line Higher yields help new fixed-income money but cut the value of bonds already held. None of this says where markets go next; we make no forecast. The other view The economy is still growing: core-sector output +7.9% in Sept, bank credit +18.2% in a year, and the RBI projects 7.1% GDP growth for FY27. 3
Page 4: One giant queue, an emptying street
Indian markets Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 One giant queue, an emptying street Small caps fell hardest, yet one share sale drew a crowd. KEY TAKEAWAY Small caps fell 7.10%, three times the Nifty 50’s 2.36%; only IT rose among sectors, and Jio Platforms’ IPO was bid more than 21 times. One giant queue Jio Platforms’ share sale of about ₹30,200 crore drew bids for more than 21 times the shares on offer, mostly from institutions. HDFC Sky, Chittorgarh; running tallies, 23 Oct An emptying street −7.10% Smallcap 250, the week now 1.80% down in 2026; 18 of 19 sector indices fell NSE Indices, 23 Oct Eighteen down, one up: sector indices, 16–23 Oct Nifty 50 Smallcap 250 IT +0.22% PSU Bank −0.30% Cement −1.10% Oil & Gas −1.67% Pharma −1.75% Healthcare −1.89% Infrastructure −1.96% Bank −2.79% Auto −3.52% Private Bank −3.77% Financial Services −3.88% FMCG −4.34% Energy −4.62% Realty −5.04% Media −5.15% Financial Services Ex-Bank −5.26% Metal −5.40% Consumer Durables −6.42% Chemicals −7.19% % change, 16 Oct close to 23 Oct close. Source: NSE Indices daily closing files. Who queued for Jio Platforms Institutions 70.55× Non-institutional 14.00× Retail 2.72× Overall 22.19× Times subscribed at 7 pm, 23 Oct (HDFC Sky); Chittorgarh’s 7.28 pm count was 21.36×. Exchange-final figures not available at press time. The emptying street. Small caps lost 7.10%, three times the Nifty 50’s fall, and gave up their gain for the year. FMCG closed at its lowest of 2026. Bottom line Such demand says nothing about how the shares will trade. The listing is due on or about 28 Oct, according to the prospectus. 4
Page 5: A wobble abroad, a slide at home
Global markets Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 A wobble abroad, a slide at home Wall Street dipped and US bond yields eased; India fell further, for reasons closer to home. KEY TAKEAWAY The Nasdaq slipped 0.71% and the US 10-year yield eased to 5.00%; the Nifty 50 fell 2.36%, more than three times as far. A wobble abroad Nasdaq Composite −0.71% in the week, to 25,955.34; +11.67% in 2026 vs A slide at home Nifty 50 −2.36% in the week, to 22,600.00; −13.51% in 2026 S&P 500 7,623.68 −0.47% in the week +11.37% in 2026 23 Oct · Kotak Neo; FRED for 16 Oct Dow Jones 52,215.16 +0.41% in the week From 52,002.41 on 16 Oct 23 Oct · Kotak Neo US 10-yr Treasury 5.00% −9 basis points From 4.18% at end-2025 23 Oct · US Treasury Rupee per dollar 94.94 from 94.96 on 16 Oct Broadly flat in the week 23 Oct · HDFC Sky Why US yields reach India 1 The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% on 16 Sep and decides again on 28 Oct. 2 US yields the 10-year eased 9 basis points to 5.00%, but is 82 basis points higher than at the end of 2025. 3 India when safe US bonds pay 5%, Indian assets have to offer more to keep foreign money. 1 US tech, Indian IT The Nasdaq fell 2.6% on 22 Oct as chip and AI-linked shares sold off, Kotak Neo reported. US technology spending feeds the order books of Indian IT exporters; Nifty IT was the week’s only rising sector, up 0.22%. 2 Three central banks this week 28 Oct Federal Reserve decision, 11.30 pm IST Federal Reserve 29 Oct European Central Bank decision ECB 30 Oct Bank of Japan decision Bank of Japan Gold fell 2.96% in India from 19 Oct, to ₹1,41,630 for 10 grams (IBJA); it moves with both the dollar price and the rupee. Europe and Asia: we could not verify index closes this week, so we do not report them. 5
Page 6: The Gulf sends the bill
Geopolitics Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 The Gulf sends the bill Only the events that moved money: drones over Saudi oil, nervous shipping lanes, a diplomat in Mumbai and a trade pact. KEY TAKEAWAY Houthi attacks on Saudi oil moved the week’s markets, and the RBI cites the West Asia conflict as a reason rate cuts are off the table. The shock, around 22 Oct Houthi attacks on Saudi oil, including a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco oilfield; worries over Hormuz shipping Kotak Neo; HDFC Sky The price $115.22 Brent spot, 20 Oct US EIA. Futures rose about 6% in the week (HDFC Sky). 1 The event, and the market link Around 22 Oct Attacks on Saudi oil Brent futures rose about 6% over the week, HDFC Sky reported; India buys most of its oil abroad (p3). All week Hormuz and Russia Fears for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries feed the price India pays for crude. 20 Oct, Mumbai A US visit, no deal Rubio met Jaishankar; no deal was signed (Kotak Neo). Nifty India Defence fell about 3% on 21 Oct (Kotak Neo), 7.05% in the week (NSE). 21 Oct A trade pact takes effect India’s free-trade agreement with New Zealand came into force, giving Indian exports duty-free access (Kotak Neo). 21 Oct, RBI minutes West Asia, in the RBI’s words The conflict is listed among the reasons rate cuts are ‘off the table in the near term’ (p7). Brent crude, spot $115.22 a barrel +88% since 31 Dec 2025 Latest official reading 20 Oct · US EIA Fuel and power prices +25.85% on a year earlier Wholesale index, September 14 Oct · DPIIT Forex reserves $721.016 bn −$5.011 bn in the week Week to 16 Oct 23 Oct · RBI Nifty India Defence −7.05% 16–23 Oct A thematic index 23 Oct · NSE Indices 6
Page 7: Rates are going up, not down
The economy and the RBI Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 Rates are going up, not down The RBI raised rates on 7 Oct; on 21 Oct it published minutes that rule out early cuts and turned away every bid at a Treasury-bill auction. KEY TAKEAWAY Repo rate 5.50%, wholesale inflation 11.39% and no bids accepted at a ₹23,000-crore T-bill auction; yet core output grew 7.9%. Tight on price 5.50% repo rate, +25 bp on 7 Oct On 21 Oct the RBI offered ₹23,000 crore of T-bills and accepted no bids : bidders wanted higher yields than it expected (Kotak Neo). Open on cash Liquidity-injecting repo auctions on 19, 21, 22 and 23 Oct: dearer money, but no shortage of it. The vote, 7 Oct 6–0 to raise the repo rate. Two members, Nagesh Kumar and Ram Singh (ringed), preferred a neutral stance to ‘calibrated tightening’. The minutes came out on 21 Oct; the next meeting is on 2–4 Dec. 1 Prices are the problem Wholesale, Sept 11.39% from 9.92% in Aug Fuel and power: 25.85% DPIIT, 14 Oct Retail, Sept 5.54% from 4.83% in Aug Provisional MoSPI, 12 Oct Onion prices were 108% higher than a year earlier. The RBI projects consumer inflation of 6.0% in Oct–Dec. 2 Growth is not Core sector, Sept +7.9% from 5.9% in Aug Eight core industries DPIIT, 21 Oct Bank credit +18.2% deposits +16.7% On a year, to 15 Oct RBI The RBI’s bulletin of 23 Oct says the economy ‘continued to demonstrate strength’. The 10-year bond yield touched 7.44% on 22 Oct, Kotak Neo reported. Not in this issue: we looked and could not confirm these in time September industrial production (IIP) The October flash PMI GST collections September trade data We would rather leave a gap than fill it with a guess. Sources: RBI (MPC minutes, auction result, press releases, bulletin); DPIIT; MoSPI; Kotak Neo. 7
Page 8: Profits up, prices down
Companies Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 Profits up, prices down Results season reached the lenders: what they reported and how their shares moved, without opinions on any of them. KEY TAKEAWAY As reported by Kotak Neo and others, several lenders posted higher profits and still saw their shares fall, as investors weighed estimates, asset quality and margins. Five lenders’ Q2 FY27 results Profits up: net profit, year on year Prices down: the share move HDFC Bank ₹20,700 cr, consolidated +5.6% about −2%, early on 19 Oct ICICI Bank ₹14,843 cr, standalone +20.1% move not found Axis Bank ₹7,003 cr, standalone +38% −4.19% on 19 Oct Bajaj Finance ₹6,367 cr, consolidated +29% −2.52% on 19 Oct IndusInd Bank ₹1,242 cr no growth rate: a loss a year earlier +2% Q2 FY27 = July–September 2026. As reported by Kotak Neo; four of the profits were also reported alike by another publisher (Business Today, among others); IndusInd rests on Kotak Neo alone. Share moves: Kotak Neo and Liquide. None was checked against a company filing. 1 The pattern Investors looked past headline growth. Axis Bank’s 38% rise fell short of analysts’ consensus, Reuters reported via Kotak Neo, and its shares were the Nifty 50’s biggest loser on 19 Oct. Kotak Neo tied Bajaj Finance’s fall to worries about gold-loan stress and margins. Biggest Nifty 50 movers, 16–23 Oct HCLTech +3.06% TCS +2.64% ONGC +2.48% Trent −7.81% Shriram Finance −7.97% Adani Enterprises −7.99% Liquide weekly review (single source). 2 Elsewhere Infosys cut its FY27 revenue-growth guidance to 1–2% in constant currency, after the close on 23 Oct. Swiggy fell 14% to a 52-week low after losses at Instamart widened. JSW Steel ’s profit rose 223% on record sales; its shares fell 2.83%. As reported by Kotak Neo; share moves from Kotak Neo and Liquide. Bottom line Higher profits did not stop these shares falling. This page reports results and share moves, not opinions on any company. 8
Page 9: Foreigners sell, India's savers keep buying
Mutual funds Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 Foreigners sell, India’s savers keep buying AMFI’s September figures show record SIP money and a 67th straight month of equity inflows. KEY TAKEAWAY SIPs brought in a record ₹32,490 crore in September, while foreign investors net sold ₹2,60,302 crore of Indian shares in January–September. Foreigners sell −₹2,60,302 crore net Indian shares sold, Jan–Sep (NSDL); −₹35,861 crore in September Savers keep buying ₹32,490 crore SIP money in September, a record, +10.7% on a year (AMFI) SIP money, month by month O J A J O J A J S ₹32,490 cr ₹ crore, Oct 2024–Sep 2026. Source: AMFI monthly notes. Foreign investors, month by month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Net equity, ₹ crore, Jan–Sep 2026; negative = net selling. Source: NSDL FPI Monitor. ₹38,307 cr into equity funds in Sept: the 67th month of inflows in a row AMFI ₹76,030 cr net bought by domestic institutions in Sept AMFI monthly note −6.0% Nifty 50 total-return index in Sept, the same month AMFI monthly note ₹82.64 lakh cr industry assets at end-Sept, −5.1% in the month AMFI Where it went, Sept Small cap ₹9,039 cr Mid cap ₹7,835 cr Flexi cap ₹6,702 cr Net inflows by category, the three largest. AMFI. The limits of the cushion Assets fell on market losses and advance-tax withdrawals from debt funds. For every 100 SIPs started, about 79 were stopped or matured (IANS, Cafemutual). Since 16 Oct at least eight fund houses have paused new money into gold funds of funds; SIPs already running continue. Bottom line Domestic money cushions the market; it does not set a floor under it. The Nifty 50 is down 13.51% this year despite the inflows. 9
Page 10: The seesaw in your savings
The explainer Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 The seesaw in your savings Bond yields rose again this week: what that does to a fixed deposit, and to a debt fund. KEY TAKEAWAY When rates rise, new deposits and bonds pay more, but bonds already held lose value, and the longer the bond, the bigger the fall. 1 The seesaw Yield goes up 7.44% 10-year G-sec yield, touched on 22 Oct: the highest since Nov 2022 Kotak Neo, single source Price goes down −6.14% NSE 10-year G-sec price index in 2026; −0.70% this week, to 23 Oct NSE Indices The pivot the fixed rate, set when the bond was issued. It never moves; only the price does. One plank one bond: when the yield end rises, the price end falls, and the reverse. 2 Old bond, new bond A bond is a loan that pays a fixed rate. If market rates rise after you lend, new lenders get a better deal, so no buyer will pay full price for your older bond. Its price falls until its return matches the new rate. Your older bond pays the rate fixed when you lent vs A new bond today pays today’s higher rate 3 What it means for you 1 Your fixed deposit. Its rate is locked until maturity, so you never see a price; a rise changes only what a new deposit may offer. 2 Your debt fund. It values its bonds at market prices every day, so its NAV rides the seesaw. 3 Long or short. Long-dated bonds swing more than short-dated paper; liquid and money-market funds move far less. 4 Over time. The fund reinvests at the higher yields; that income may or may not offset the fall. Bottom line None of this says which is better. It explains why a debt-fund statement can show a dip in a week like this one, while a deposit receipt does not. 10
Page 11: A hope, a warning, a dissent
Voices of the week Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 A hope, a warning, a dissent Three remarks from 20–22 Oct: verbatim, sourced and dated. No tips. KEY TAKEAWAY An entrepreneur who is 90% in equities, an energy chief who doubts 2027 brings normality, and an RBI rate-setter who wants only mild hikes. “ I am 90% allocated to the equity markets.” Nikhil Kamath, Entrepreneur and investor Conversation with Rahul Kanwal, NDTV World Summit 2026, New Delhi · Thu 22 Oct 2026 · youtube.com Why it matters: he said it in a week when the Nifty 50 fell on all four trading days. It describes his own money, not a recommendation for anyone else’s. The week he said it −2.36% Nifty 50 four sessions, four falls Mon Wed Thu Fri NSE Indices, 19–23 Oct “ I personally don’t see any credible pathway that 2027 will be a year of normalisation” Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency Financial Times Energy Transition conference, London (as reported by AFP) · Tue 20 Oct 2026 · asiafinancial.com Why it matters: oil is the first link in this issue’s cover story (p3). Brent, the day he spoke $115.22 a barrel against $61.35 at the end of 2025 $61.35 $115.22 31 Dec 2025 20 Oct US EIA spot, via FRED “ For now, there is a case for incremental, mild repo rate hikes, not high-for-long rates.” Prof. Ram Singh, External member, RBI Monetary Policy Committee Minutes of the MPC meeting of 5 to 7 October, published by the RBI · Wed 21 Oct 2026 · rbi.org.in Why it matters: he backed the hike but preferred a neutral stance to ‘calibrated tightening’, arguing against a long tightening cycle. The decision, 7 Oct 5.50% repo rate raised 25 bp by a 6–0 vote; two members, he among them, preferred a neutral stance RBI, MPC minutes, 21 Oct How we choose voices Verbatim, attributed, dated and linked to the original. Balanced: a constructive view sits beside cautious ones. No stock or fund tips, targets or return promises. Typographic only: no photos or likenesses of real people. 11
Page 12: How to explain a down week
For distributors Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 How to explain a down week Facts for the client who calls on Monday, and this month’s rule news. “ A client who understands risk invests wisely and stays invested longer. That is good for the client, for you and for the market.” Tuhin Kanta Pandey, Chairman, SEBI 16th ANMI International Capital Market Convention, Mumbai · Sat 24 Oct 2026 · sebi.gov.in 1 The Monday call: what a client asks, and the facts to cover The client asks What happened? The Nifty 50 fell 2.36% over four sessions, to 22,600.00 on 23 Oct; the Smallcap 250 fell 7.10%. The client asks Why did it fall? Dear oil after attacks on Saudi oil facilities. An RBI that rules out rate cuts for now (minutes, 21 Oct). Heavy foreign selling: a net ₹2,60,302 crore of shares in Jan–Sep (NSDL). The client asks Is this unusual? The Nifty 50 is 13.51% lower this year. India VIX closed at 16.86, well below its 2026 high of 27.89 (30 Mar). The client asks What are others doing? SIPs hit a record ₹32,490 crore in September (AMFI). The client asks Where does it go next? Nobody knows where oil, rates or markets go next. Any change to a plan starts from the client’s goals, time horizon and risk profile. 2 Say, and leave out Do say Dated facts, with the source What nobody knows Leave out Forecasts Return promises: nothing in this week’s facts supports them 3 What changed for you 21 Sep 2026 NISM Series V-D now covers SIF distribution SEBI 18 Oct AMFI: every MFD files a social-media declaration on the ARN portal Cafemutual, single source 1 Apr 2027 A PRIM route opens for portfolio managers SEBI PMS Regulations, 8 Oct 8 Apr 2027 Fund houses move to SEBI’s common advertisement code SEBI, 10 Oct We found no October change to commissions, TER or KYC deadlines. Sources: NSE (index closes, 23 Oct); RBI (MPC minutes, 21 Oct); NSDL (foreign flows); AMFI (September data); SEBI; Cafemutual. No individual schemes are named on this page. 12
Page 13: Three central banks and a listing
The week ahead Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 Three central banks and a listing Mon 26 to Fri 30 Oct, as published; items marked ‘expected’ or ‘tentative’ may move. KEY TAKEAWAY The Fed decides on 28 Oct, the ECB on 29 Oct and the Bank of Japan on 30 Oct; Nifty October F&O contracts expire on 27 Oct. Mon 26 Q2 results: Tata Consumer Products, Paytm, REC and others EAAA India Alternatives IPO opens Jio Platforms allotment Banks shut in some states; markets open NFOs: 6 close, 2 open; 1 SIF closes Tue 27 Nifty and Bank Nifty October F&O expiry Wiscon Industries IPO opens AMFI ethics workshop for MFDs, 27–28 Oct Fed meeting begins NFOs: 1 closes, 3 open Wed 28 Jio Platforms listing , on or about this date (prospectus) Paras Healthcare listing (tentative) Fed decision, 11.30 pm IST NFOs: 1 SIF closes Thu 29 Suzlon Energy Q2 results Bombay Coated and Special Steels IPO opens First Indian session after the Fed ECB decision Fri 30 RBI forex reserves, week to 23 Oct (expected) Bank of Japan decision NFOs: 3 close, 1 opens India World Central-bank decision New fund offers (AMFI; counted, not named) F&O expiry: NSE. Central banks: Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Japan. New fund offers: AMFI listings, counted; schemes not named. Results, IPO and listing dates: Kotak Neo and HDFC Sky (single-source), except the Jio Platforms dates, from its prospectus. The reserves date follows the RBI’s usual Friday release. 1 Why it matters The Fed raised rates in September and the RBI in October; this week’s three decisions will show whether the big central banks keep tightening. The Fed’s statement lands after Indian markets close on Wednesday, so Indian prices can first react to it on Thursday 29 Oct. 2 Further out 23 Nov Next monthly F&O expiry NSE 2–4 Dec The RBI’s next policy meeting RBI 29 Dec December F&O expiry NSE 13
Page 14: Cheaper, not necessarily cheap
By the numbers Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 Cheaper, not necessarily cheap Indian shares cost less relative to their earnings than at New Year: a description, not a signal. KEY TAKEAWAY The Nifty 50’s P/E has fallen from 22.75 to 19.05 this year, but bond yields are higher and a lower ratio can also reflect slower earnings. Index level 22,600 −13.51% in 2026 26,129.60 22,600.00 31 Dec 23 Oct NSE Indices, 23 Oct Price to earnings 19.05 from 22.75 22.75 19.05 31 Dec 23 Oct NSE Indices, trailing Price to book 2.78 from 3.55 3.55 2.78 31 Dec 23 Oct NSE Indices Dividend yield 1.52% from 1.28% 1.28% 1.52% 31 Dec 23 Oct NSE Indices Earnings yield 5.25% from 4.40% 4.40% 5.25% 31 Dec 23 Oct 1 ÷ P/E, computed by us 1 Why it is cheaper: price fell less than the ratio −13.51% the index, 31 Dec 2025 to 23 Oct NSE Indices about −16% its P/E: the price paid for each rupee of trailing earnings computed from NSE’s P/E roughly +3% what that implies for trailing earnings, as NSE measures them computed What each pays India 10-yr G-sec touched, 22 Oct (Kotak Neo) 7.44% Nifty 50 earnings yield 1 ÷ P/E, 23 Oct 5.25% US 10-yr Treasury 23 Oct (US Treasury) 5.00% Why that may not make it cheap 1 The competition got tougher: India’s 10-year bonds pay more than the index earns, at today’s prices. 2 Slower earnings: Infosys cut its revenue-growth guidance this week (Kotak Neo), and FMCG shares hit their lowest of 2026. 3 Averages hide a split: the Smallcap 250 is down only 1.80% this year, and we have no verified valuation figures for smaller companies. What this page says Shares are cheaper relative to trailing earnings than at New Year. What it does not say A view that shares are cheap A forecast of where they go next Bottom line Cheaper is a fact; cheap is an opinion, and this magazine does not hold one. 14
Page 15: Where every number comes from
Sources and disclosures Felix Cold Brew · Week of 19–23 October 2026 Where every number comes from Our sources by publisher, with the dates used, and the disclosures that govern this issue. KEY TAKEAWAY Every number is dated and sourced; this issue is information, not advice. 107 facts behind the numbers on pages 2–14 fact book compiled 26 Oct 2026 85 verified : an official source, or two independent publishers that agree e.g. NSE, RBI, AMFI, NSDL 22 single-source : one publisher, named wherever the fact appears e.g. Kotak Neo, HDFC Sky, Liquide How we source 1 Collect official files first; named publishers only where no official source exists. 2 Verify an official source, or two independent publishers that agree. 3 Label a single-source fact names its publisher on the page. 4 Print every number dated; computed changes say so; gaps stay gaps. SOURCES, BY PUBLISHER, AND DISCLOSURES NSE Indices. Daily index closing files, 16–23 Oct 2026, with 31 Dec 2025 as the base for 2026 changes; weekly closes from 30 Apr for the 26-week series; the F&O contract list of 23 Oct. Reserve Bank of India. MPC minutes, Treasury-bill auction result and press releases, 21–23 Oct 2026; Weekly Statistical Supplement, data to 16 Oct; Bulletin, 23 Oct. AMFI. Monthly report and monthly note for September 2026, released 12 Oct; NFO listings and updates, 26 Oct. NSDL. FPI Monitor: monthly totals for January–September 2026 and reporting dates 19–23 Oct. MoSPI and DPIIT. Consumer prices, released 12 Oct 2026; wholesale prices, 14 Oct; eight core industries, 21 Oct; all for September 2026. SEBI. Regulations, board decisions and circulars, 21 Jul–10 Oct 2026; the Jio Platforms prospectus of 15 Oct. US Federal Reserve, US Treasury and US EIA. Fed statement of 16 Sep and meeting calendar; H.10 rupee rate to 16 Oct 2026; Treasury yields, 23 Oct; Brent spot to 20 Oct and the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, 16–23 Oct, via FRED. ECB and Bank of Japan. Published meeting calendars for 28–30 Oct 2026. IBJA. Gold rates, 19–23 Oct 2026. Fund houses. A fund-house addendum of 15 Oct 2026 on gold funds of funds, with Reuters and IANS reports. News publishers. Kotak Neo, HDFC Sky, Liquide and Cafemutual reports of 17–26 Oct 2026, for single-source items, each named on its page; Chittorgarh, Business Today, IANS and Reuters as second sources. Charts. Pages 2–4: NSE Indices (daily closes, India VIX, G-sec price index, sectors); pages 2, 5: US 10-year yield (US Treasury, FRED); pages 2, 9: SIP inflows (AMFI) and foreign flows (NSDL). Audit. The fact-by-fact list, with each fact’s ID, source, date and status, is on file and available on request. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Felix Cold Brew is information, not investment advice. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and it names no mutual fund scheme. Nothing in it is a forecast or a promise of returns; past performance does not indicate future results. Company and market facts are reported as published by the sources named, and single-source items had not been checked against company filings at press time. Felix (felixwealth.in) is a technology platform for mutual fund distributors. Felix Cold Brew is published weekly; this pilot issue, No. 1, covers trading from Mon 19 to Fri 23 October 2026 and is dated Sat 24 October 2026. Quanthm Bit Works is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst and does not give investment advice. Felix is a technology platform and is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Listed distributors are AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributors, not SEBI-registered investment advisers. 15
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Quanthm Bit Works is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst and does not give investment advice.

Felix is a technology platform and is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Listed distributors are AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributors, not SEBI-registered investment advisers.

Felix Cold Brew: Oil's long shadow · Felix Wealth